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12 - Climate change vulnerability indicators: from noise to signal
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- By Till Sterzel, University of Potsdam, Boris Orlowsky, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Hannah Förster, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Anja Weber, Humboldt University in Berlin, Dennis Eucker, Catholic University of Mozambique
- Edited by Richard Rottenburg, Martin Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Germany, Sally E. Merry, New York University, Sung-Joon Park, Martin Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Germany, Johanna Mugler, Universität Bern, Switzerland
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- Book:
- The World of Indicators
- Published online:
- 05 October 2015
- Print publication:
- 15 September 2015, pp 307-328
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Summary
Introduction
Using several examples, this chapter explores the application, advantages, limitations and academic debate with respect to climate change vulnerability indicators (CCVIs) as complexity-reducing representations of societal vulnerability to climate change. In recent years, the need has increased for understanding the factors which determine the vulnerability of societies around the world to climate change. Decision- and policy-makers are in need of useful and usable information on this matter to reduce climate change vulnerability, and require it in a way that permits the development of appropriate policies in a given context. CCVIs appear to be an example of how such information is provided: they are a means of quantifying societal vulnerabilities to climate change into a single number, and of communicating to policy-making how vulnerable particular entities are to specific aspects of climate change.
The following example illustrates the need and provision of such indicator-driven information on climate change vulnerability. In November 2008, the sub-committee for the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) of the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), initiated by the World Bank, appointed an expert group to produce a list of ten countries or regions that are the most vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change. These countries were to benefit from the funding of the PPCR programme for actions toward improved climate change resilience. By September 2010, the PPCR fund had grown to roughly US$1 billion, receiving aid from several different donor countries (Climate Investment Funds 2010). In the face of this substantial sum, transparency and replicability in selecting the receiving countries were of key importance. The expert group therefore decided on an approach based on the use of vulnerability indicators (Brooks et al. 2009).
The identification of the most vulnerable countries with regard to climate change is a task of large complexity, one that begins with the very notion of vulnerability. The aspects of vulnerability investigated often included health, food security, access to water, or the capacity to adapt and develop different combinations of these. If it is difficult to quantify the current status of any of these aspects (let alone if available data is scarce, which is often the case), it is even more difficult to derive their dependence on climate and to estimate how they evolve under a future, changing climate.
Chapter 3 - Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
- from Section III
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- By Sonia I. Seneviratne, Neville Nicholls, David Easterling, Clare M. Goodess, Shinjiro Kanae, James Kossin, Yali Luo, Jose Marengo, Kathleen McInnes, Mohammad Rahimi, Markus Reichstein, Asgeir Sorteberg, Carolina Vera, Xuebin Zhang, Matilde Rusticucci, Vladimir Semenov, Lisa V. Alexander, Simon Allen, Gerardo Benito, Tereza Cavazos, John Clague, Declan Conway, Paul M. Della-Marta, Markus Gerber, Sunling Gong, B. N. Goswami, Mark Hemer, Christian Huggel, Bart van den Hurk, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Akio Kitoh, Albert M.G. Klein Tank, Guilong Li, Simon Mason, William McGuire, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Boris Orlowsky, Sharon Smith, Wassila Thiaw, Adonis Velegrakis, Pascal Yiou, Tingjun Zhang, Tianjun Zhou, Francis W. Zwiers
- Edited by Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker, Qin Dahe
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- Book:
- Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
- Published online:
- 05 August 2012
- Print publication:
- 28 May 2012, pp 109-230
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Summary
Executive Summary
This chapter addresses changes in weather and climate events relevant to extreme impacts and disasters. An extreme (weather or climate) event is generally defined as the occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends (‘tails’) of the range of observed values of the variable. Some climate extremes (e.g., droughts, floods) may be the result of an accumulation of weather or climate events that are, individually, not extreme themselves (though their accumulation is extreme). As well, weather or climate events, even if not extreme in a statistical sense, can still lead to extreme conditions or impacts, either by crossing a critical threshold in a social, ecological, or physical system, or by occurring simultaneously with other events. A weather system such as a tropical cyclone can have an extreme impact, depending on where and when it approaches landfall, even if the specific cyclone is not extreme relative to other tropical cyclones. Conversely, not all extremes necessarily lead to serious impacts. [3.1]
Many weather and climate extremes are the result of natural climate variability (including phenomena such as El Niño), and natural decadal or multi-decadal variations in the climate provide the backdrop for anthropogenic climate changes. Even if there were no anthropogenic changes in climate, a wide variety of natural weather and climate extremes would still occur. [3.1]
A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of weather and climate extremes, and can result in unprecedented extremes. Changes in extremes can also be directly related to changes in mean climate, because mean future conditions in some variables are projected to lie within the tails of present-day conditions. Nevertheless, changes in extremes of a climate or weather variable are not always related in a simple way to changes in the mean of the same variable, and in some cases can be of opposite sign to a change in the mean of the variable. Changes in phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or monsoons could affect the frequency and intensity of extremes in several regions simultaneously. [3.1]